Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Racing vs Bafmeng United — Elite Two 2020

Racing
Racing
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bafmeng United
Bafmeng United
2/14/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Racing50%
×Draw27%
Bafmeng United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing
1.43
Bafmeng United
0.86

Racing creates 66% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 34 away

creates per match

Racing
1.33
Bafmeng United
1.03

allows per match

Racing
0.70
Bafmeng United
1.53

finishing

Racing+0.00on par
Bafmeng United+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing ↓

Bafmeng United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Racing or draw
77%
Racing or Bafmeng United
73%
Draw or Bafmeng United
50%

Winning margin

Racing wins by 2+
25%
Bafmeng United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Racing 1+ goals
76%
Racing 2+ goals
42%
Racing 3+ goals
17%
Bafmeng United 1+ goals
58%
Bafmeng United 2+ goals
21%
Bafmeng United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Racing (draw refunded)
69%
Bafmeng United (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.70 · 46 matches

Bafmeng United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing attack 1.33 + Bafmeng United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bafmeng United attack 1.03 + Racing defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Racing scores more
50%
level
27%
Bafmeng United scores more
23%

Racing at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Racing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing vs Bafmeng United

Bafmeng United beat Racing 2-1 in Elite Two on February 14, 2026.