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Racing vs APEJES Academy — Elite One 2019

Racing
Racing
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
5/27/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 21Stade Olembe Annexe A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Racing28%
×Draw26%
APEJES Academy46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing
1.08
APEJES Academy
1.46

APEJES Academy creates 35% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 67 away

creates per match

Racing
0.92
APEJES Academy
1.01

allows per match

Racing
1.92
APEJES Academy
1.24

finishing

Racing+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Racing or draw
54%
Racing or APEJES Academy
74%
Draw or APEJES Academy
72%

Winning margin

Racing wins by 2+
11%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Racing 1+ goals
66%
Racing 2+ goals
29%
Racing 3+ goals
10%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
77%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
43%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Racing (draw refunded)
38%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing attack 0.92 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + Racing defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing scores more
28%
level
26%
APEJES Academy scores more
46%

APEJES Academy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing vs APEJES Academy

APEJES Academy beat Racing 1-0 in Elite One on May 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Olembe Annexe A in Yaoundé.