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Racing vs Al Nejmeh — Premier League 2019

Racing
Racing
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
3/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Racing15%
×Draw23%
Al Nejmeh62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing
0.72
Al Nejmeh
1.77

Al Nejmeh creates 146% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 70 away

creates per match

Racing
0.76
Al Nejmeh
1.53

allows per match

Racing
2.02
Al Nejmeh
0.69

finishing

Racing+0.00on par
Al Nejmeh+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing ↓

Al Nejmeh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–115%
0–213%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Racing or draw
38%
Racing or Al Nejmeh
77%
Draw or Al Nejmeh
85%

Winning margin

Racing wins by 2+
4%
Al Nejmeh wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Racing 1+ goals
51%
Racing 2+ goals
16%
Racing 3+ goals
4%
Al Nejmeh 1+ goals
83%
Al Nejmeh 2+ goals
53%
Al Nejmeh 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Racing (draw refunded)
19%
Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.02 · 41 matches

Al Nejmeh away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.69 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing attack 0.76 + Al Nejmeh defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.72

Al Nejmeh attack 1.53 + Racing defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Racing scores more
15%
level
23%
Al Nejmeh scores more
62%

Al Nejmeh at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al Nejmeh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Racing 0–0 Al Nejmeh

Racing and Al Nejmeh drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Fouad Shehab Stadium in Jounie.