Racing 0–6 Al Ansar: Result & Stats

Racing

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Al Ansar

2/8/2026

Premier League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Racing11%

×Draw19%

Al Ansar70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RacingExpected goals in this matchAl Ansar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

2.13

Racing

0.72

Al Ansar

2.13

Al Ansar creates 196% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 60 away

0.76

creates per match

2.23

2.02

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Racing

0.76

Al Ansar

2.23

allows per match

Racing

2.02

Al Ansar

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing+0.00on par

Al Ansar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing ↓

Al Ansar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Racing or draw

30%

Racing or Al Ansar

81%

Draw or Al Ansar

89%

Winning margin

Racing wins by 2+

3%

Al Ansar wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Racing 1+ goals

51%

Racing 2+ goals

16%

Racing 3+ goals

4%

Al Ansar 1+ goals

88%

Al Ansar 2+ goals

63%

Al Ansar 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Racing (draw refunded)

14%

Al Ansar (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.02 · 41 matches

Al Ansar away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing attack 0.76 + Al Ansar defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Al Ansar attack 2.23 + Racing defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Racing scores more

11%

level

19%

Al Ansar scores more

70%

Al Ansar at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Al Ansar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff