Racing Troisvierges 2–1 Sporting Bertrange

Racing Troisvierges

2 – 1

Sporting Bertrange

9/9/2020

Cup · 1st RoundStade Op der Kopp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Racing Troisvierges7%

×Draw9%

Sporting Bertrange84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing TroisviergesExpected goals in this matchSporting Bertrange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

4.29

Racing Troisvierges

1.27

Sporting Bertrange

4.29

Sporting Bertrange creates 238% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.14

creates per match

3.00

5.57

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Racing Troisvierges

1.14

Sporting Bertrange

3.00

allows per match

Racing Troisvierges

5.57

Sporting Bertrange

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Troisvierges+0.00on par

Sporting Bertrange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Troisvierges ↓

Sporting Bertrange →

0–00%

0–12%

0–24%

0–36%

0–46%

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–12%

2–23%

2–35%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Racing Troisvierges or draw

16%

Racing Troisvierges or Sporting Bertrange

91%

Draw or Sporting Bertrange

93%

Winning margin

Racing Troisvierges wins by 2+

Sporting Bertrange wins by 2+

69%

Team goals

Racing Troisvierges 1+ goals

72%

Racing Troisvierges 2+ goals

36%

Racing Troisvierges 3+ goals

14%

Sporting Bertrange 1+ goals

98%

Sporting Bertrange 2+ goals

92%

Sporting Bertrange 3+ goals

77%

Draw no bet

Racing Troisvierges (draw refunded)

Sporting Bertrange (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Troisvierges at home — creates 1.14, concedes 5.57 · 7 matches

Sporting Bertrange away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Troisvierges attack 1.14 + Sporting Bertrange defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sporting Bertrange attack 3.00 + Racing Troisvierges defence 5.57 → ÷2 → 4.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 84%?"

Racing Troisvierges scores more

level

Sporting Bertrange scores more

84%

Sporting Bertrange at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Sporting Bertrange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff