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Racing Troisvierges vs Sandweiler — Cup 2020

Racing Troisvierges
Racing Troisvierges
FT
1 – 3
Sandweiler
Sandweiler
9/12/2021CupCup · 1st RoundStade Op der Kopp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Racing Troisvierges11%
×Draw12%
Sandweiler78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Troisvierges
1.57
Sandweiler
4.04

Sandweiler creates 157% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Racing Troisvierges
1.14
Sandweiler
2.50

allows per match

Racing Troisvierges
5.57
Sandweiler
2.00

finishing

Racing Troisvierges+0.00on par
Sandweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Troisvierges ↓

Sandweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Racing Troisvierges or draw
22%
Racing Troisvierges or Sandweiler
88%
Draw or Sandweiler
89%

Winning margin

Racing Troisvierges wins by 2+
4%
Sandweiler wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Racing Troisvierges 1+ goals
79%
Racing Troisvierges 2+ goals
46%
Racing Troisvierges 3+ goals
21%
Sandweiler 1+ goals
98%
Sandweiler 2+ goals
90%
Sandweiler 3+ goals
74%

Draw no bet

Racing Troisvierges (draw refunded)
12%
Sandweiler (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Troisvierges at home — creates 1.14, concedes 5.57 · 7 matches

Sandweiler away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Troisvierges attack 1.14 + Sandweiler defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sandweiler attack 2.50 + Racing Troisvierges defence 5.57 → ÷2 → 4.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Racing Troisvierges scores more
11%
level
12%
Sandweiler scores more
78%

Sandweiler at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Sandweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Racing Troisvierges 1–3 Sandweiler

Sandweiler beat Racing Troisvierges 3-1 in Cup on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Op der Kopp in Troisvierges/Ulflingen.