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Racing Troisvierges vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — Cup 2020

Racing Troisvierges
Racing Troisvierges
FT
0 – 11
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
10/18/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Op der Kopp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Racing Troisvierges3%
×Draw6%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg92%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Troisvierges
0.79
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
4.54

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 475% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

creates per match

Racing Troisvierges
1.14
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3.50

allows per match

Racing Troisvierges
5.57
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
0.44

finishing

Racing Troisvierges+0.00on par
Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Troisvierges ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–39%
0–410%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (10%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Racing Troisvierges or draw
8%
Racing Troisvierges or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
94%
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
97%

Winning margin

Racing Troisvierges wins by 2+
1%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
81%

Team goals

Racing Troisvierges 1+ goals
55%
Racing Troisvierges 2+ goals
19%
Racing Troisvierges 3+ goals
5%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
99%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
93%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
80%

Draw no bet

Racing Troisvierges (draw refunded)
3%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Troisvierges at home — creates 1.14, concedes 5.57 · 7 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Troisvierges attack 1.14 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.79

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 3.50 + Racing Troisvierges defence 5.57 → ÷2 → 4.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Racing Troisvierges scores more
3%
level
6%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
92%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Racing Troisvierges 0–11 Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Racing FC Union Luxembourg beat Racing Troisvierges 11-0 in Cup on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Op der Kopp in Troisvierges/Ulflingen.