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Racing Troisvierges vs Lorentzweiler — Cup 2020

Racing Troisvierges
Racing Troisvierges
FT
2 – 4
Lorentzweiler
Lorentzweiler
9/7/2024CupCup · 1st RoundStade Op der Kopp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Racing Troisvierges5%
×Draw8%
Lorentzweiler86%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Troisvierges
1.07
Lorentzweiler
4.19

Lorentzweiler creates 292% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Racing Troisvierges
1.14
Lorentzweiler
2.80

allows per match

Racing Troisvierges
5.57
Lorentzweiler
1.00

finishing

Racing Troisvierges+0.00on par
Lorentzweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Troisvierges ↓

Lorentzweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–37%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Racing Troisvierges or draw
14%
Racing Troisvierges or Lorentzweiler
92%
Draw or Lorentzweiler
95%

Winning margin

Racing Troisvierges wins by 2+
2%
Lorentzweiler wins by 2+
72%

Team goals

Racing Troisvierges 1+ goals
66%
Racing Troisvierges 2+ goals
29%
Racing Troisvierges 3+ goals
9%
Lorentzweiler 1+ goals
98%
Lorentzweiler 2+ goals
91%
Lorentzweiler 3+ goals
76%

Draw no bet

Racing Troisvierges (draw refunded)
6%
Lorentzweiler (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Troisvierges at home — creates 1.14, concedes 5.57 · 7 matches

Lorentzweiler away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Troisvierges attack 1.14 + Lorentzweiler defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Lorentzweiler attack 2.80 + Racing Troisvierges defence 5.57 → ÷2 → 4.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Racing Troisvierges scores more
5%
level
8%
Lorentzweiler scores more
86%

Lorentzweiler at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Lorentzweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Troisvierges vs Lorentzweiler

Lorentzweiler beat Racing Troisvierges 4-2 in Cup on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Op der Kopp in Troisvierges/Ulflingen.