Racing Troisvierges 1–7 Alisontia Steinsel

Racing Troisvierges

1 – 7

HT: 1 – 5

Alisontia Steinsel

10/1/2023

Cup · 2nd RoundStade Op der Kopp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Racing Troisvierges6%

×Draw9%

Alisontia Steinsel85%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing TroisviergesExpected goals in this matchAlisontia Steinsel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

4.22

Racing Troisvierges

1.19

Alisontia Steinsel

4.22

Alisontia Steinsel creates 255% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.14

creates per match

2.88

5.57

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Racing Troisvierges

1.14

Alisontia Steinsel

2.88

allows per match

Racing Troisvierges

5.57

Alisontia Steinsel

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Troisvierges+0.00on par

Alisontia Steinsel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Troisvierges ↓

Alisontia Steinsel →

0–01%

0–12%

0–25%

0–36%

0–47%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–12%

2–23%

2–35%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Racing Troisvierges or draw

15%

Racing Troisvierges or Alisontia Steinsel

91%

Draw or Alisontia Steinsel

94%

Winning margin

Racing Troisvierges wins by 2+

Alisontia Steinsel wins by 2+

70%

Team goals

Racing Troisvierges 1+ goals

70%

Racing Troisvierges 2+ goals

33%

Racing Troisvierges 3+ goals

12%

Alisontia Steinsel 1+ goals

98%

Alisontia Steinsel 2+ goals

91%

Alisontia Steinsel 3+ goals

76%

Draw no bet

Racing Troisvierges (draw refunded)

Alisontia Steinsel (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Troisvierges at home — creates 1.14, concedes 5.57 · 7 matches

Alisontia Steinsel away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Troisvierges attack 1.14 + Alisontia Steinsel defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Alisontia Steinsel attack 2.88 + Racing Troisvierges defence 5.57 → ÷2 → 4.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 85%?"

Racing Troisvierges scores more

level

Alisontia Steinsel scores more

85%

Alisontia Steinsel at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Alisontia Steinsel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff