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Racing Santander vs Tudelano — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Santander
Racing Santander
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tudelano
Tudelano
8/29/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Racing Santander64%
×Draw23%
Tudelano13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Santander
1.75
Tudelano
0.64

Racing Santander creates 173% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Racing Santander
1.72
Tudelano
0.84

allows per match

Racing Santander
0.44
Tudelano
1.79

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par
Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Tudelano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw
87%
Racing Santander or Tudelano
77%
Draw or Tudelano
36%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+
37%
Tudelano wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals
83%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
52%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
25%
Tudelano 1+ goals
47%
Tudelano 2+ goals
14%
Tudelano 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)
83%
Tudelano (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.44 · 18 matches

Tudelano away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.72 + Tudelano defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tudelano attack 0.84 + Racing Santander defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Racing Santander scores more
64%
level
23%
Tudelano scores more
13%

Racing Santander at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Santander 1 – 0 Tudelano

Racing Santander beat Tudelano 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero in Santander.