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Racing Santander vs Extremadura — Segunda División 2018

Racing Santander
Racing Santander
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Extremadura
Extremadura
11/23/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Racing Santander46%
×Draw26%
Extremadura28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Santander
1.49
Extremadura
1.09

Racing Santander creates 37% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 42 away

creates per match

Racing Santander
1.67
Extremadura
1.07

allows per match

Racing Santander
1.11
Extremadura
1.31

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw
72%
Racing Santander or Extremadura
74%
Draw or Extremadura
54%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+
23%
Extremadura wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals
77%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
44%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
19%
Extremadura 1+ goals
66%
Extremadura 2+ goals
30%
Extremadura 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)
63%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 106 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.67 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.49

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Racing Santander defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing Santander scores more
46%
level
26%
Extremadura scores more
28%

Racing Santander at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Racing Santander 3–0 Extremadura

Racing Santander beat Extremadura 3-0 in Segunda División on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero in Santander.