Racing Santander 2–1 Deportivo La Coruna

Racing Santander

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo La Coruna

10/19/2025

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Racing Santander43%

×Draw26%

Deportivo La Coruna30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing SantanderExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Coruna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.13

Racing Santander

1.41

Deportivo La Coruna

1.13

Racing Santander creates 25% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 85 away

1.67

creates per match

1.15

1.11

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Racing Santander

1.67

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

allows per match

Racing Santander

1.11

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw

70%

Racing Santander or Deportivo La Coruna

74%

Draw or Deportivo La Coruna

57%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+

21%

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals

76%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

41%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

17%

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

59%

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 106 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.67 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.41

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Racing Santander defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing Santander scores more

43%

level

26%

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

30%

Racing Santander at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff