Racing Santander II 5–1 Vimenor: Result & Stats

Racing Santander II

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Vimenor

10/6/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Campo Municipal de Villaescusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Racing Santander II55%

×Draw23%

Vimenor22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Santander IIExpected goals in this matchVimenor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.08

Racing Santander II

1.86

Vimenor

1.08

Racing Santander II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 109 away

2.37

creates per match

1.27

0.89

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Racing Santander II

2.37

Vimenor

1.27

allows per match

Racing Santander II

0.89

Vimenor

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Vimenor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander II ↓

Vimenor →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Racing Santander II or draw

78%

Racing Santander II or Vimenor

77%

Draw or Vimenor

45%

Winning margin

Racing Santander II wins by 2+

32%

Vimenor wins by 2+

Team goals

Racing Santander II 1+ goals

84%

Racing Santander II 2+ goals

55%

Racing Santander II 3+ goals

28%

Vimenor 1+ goals

66%

Vimenor 2+ goals

29%

Vimenor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)

72%

Vimenor (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander II at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Vimenor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.35 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander II attack 2.37 + Vimenor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.86

Vimenor attack 1.27 + Racing Santander II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Racing Santander II scores more

55%

level

23%

Vimenor scores more

22%

Racing Santander II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Racing Santander II 5–1 Vimenor

Racing Santander II beat Vimenor 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Villaescusa in Villaescusa.

Racing Santander II vs Vimenor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Racing Santander II 5–1 Vimenor