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Racing Santander II vs Rinconeda Polanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rinconeda Polanco
Rinconeda Polanco
2/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Estadio La Albericia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing Santander II68%
×Draw19%
Rinconeda Polanco13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Santander II
2.15
Rinconeda Polanco
0.81

Racing Santander II creates 165% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 15 away

creates per match

Racing Santander II
2.37
Rinconeda Polanco
0.73

allows per match

Racing Santander II
0.89
Rinconeda Polanco
1.93

finishing

Racing Santander II+0.00on par
Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander II ↓

Rinconeda Polanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Racing Santander II or draw
87%
Racing Santander II or Rinconeda Polanco
81%
Draw or Rinconeda Polanco
32%

Winning margin

Racing Santander II wins by 2+
44%
Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Racing Santander II 1+ goals
88%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
63%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
36%
Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals
56%
Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals
19%
Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
84%
Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander II at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Rinconeda Polanco away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander II attack 2.37 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.15

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.73 + Racing Santander II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Racing Santander II scores more
68%
level
19%
Rinconeda Polanco scores more
13%

Racing Santander II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Santander II vs Rinconeda Polanco

Racing Santander II beat Rinconeda Polanco 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Albericia in Santander.