Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Racing Santander II vs Escobedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Escobedo
Escobedo
5/15/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 6Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Racing Santander II52%
×Draw24%
Escobedo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Santander II
1.74
Escobedo
1.10

Racing Santander II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 91 away

creates per match

Racing Santander II
2.37
Escobedo
1.31

allows per match

Racing Santander II
0.89
Escobedo
1.10

finishing

Racing Santander II+0.00on par
Escobedo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander II ↓

Escobedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Racing Santander II or draw
76%
Racing Santander II or Escobedo
76%
Draw or Escobedo
48%

Winning margin

Racing Santander II wins by 2+
29%
Escobedo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Racing Santander II 1+ goals
82%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
52%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
25%
Escobedo 1+ goals
67%
Escobedo 2+ goals
30%
Escobedo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
69%
Escobedo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander II at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Escobedo away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander II attack 2.37 + Escobedo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.74

Escobedo attack 1.31 + Racing Santander II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Racing Santander II scores more
52%
level
24%
Escobedo scores more
24%

Racing Santander II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Santander II vs Escobedo

Escobedo beat Racing Santander II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero in Santander.