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Racing Santander II vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Estadio La Albericia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Racing Santander II53%
×Draw22%
Atlético Albericia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Santander II
1.91
Atlético Albericia
1.23

Racing Santander II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 108 away

creates per match

Racing Santander II
2.37
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Racing Santander II
0.89
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Racing Santander II+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander II ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Racing Santander II or draw
75%
Racing Santander II or Atlético Albericia
78%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
47%

Winning margin

Racing Santander II wins by 2+
30%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Racing Santander II 1+ goals
85%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
57%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
30%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
68%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander II at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander II attack 2.37 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.91

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Racing Santander II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Racing Santander II scores more
53%
level
22%
Atlético Albericia scores more
25%

Racing Santander II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Racing Santander II 2–1 Atlético Albericia

Racing Santander II beat Atlético Albericia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Albericia in Santander.