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Racing Rioja vs Peña Balsamaiso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
3/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 26Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Racing Rioja57%
×Draw23%
Peña Balsamaiso21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Rioja
1.85
Peña Balsamaiso
1.02

Racing Rioja creates 81% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

creates per match

Racing Rioja
1.80
Peña Balsamaiso
0.97

allows per match

Racing Rioja
1.07
Peña Balsamaiso
1.91

finishing

Racing Rioja+0.00on par
Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Racing Rioja or draw
79%
Racing Rioja or Peña Balsamaiso
77%
Draw or Peña Balsamaiso
43%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja wins by 2+
33%
Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Racing Rioja 1+ goals
84%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
55%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
28%
Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
64%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
27%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
73%
Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja attack 1.80 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.85

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Racing Rioja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Racing Rioja scores more
57%
level
23%
Peña Balsamaiso scores more
21%

Racing Rioja at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Racing Rioja 2–0 Peña Balsamaiso

Racing Rioja beat Peña Balsamaiso 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.