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Racing Rioja vs Haro Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 5Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Racing Rioja54%
×Draw24%
Haro Deportivo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Rioja
1.70
Haro Deportivo
1.00

Racing Rioja creates 70% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 81 away

creates per match

Racing Rioja
1.80
Haro Deportivo
0.94

allows per match

Racing Rioja
1.07
Haro Deportivo
1.60

finishing

Racing Rioja+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Racing Rioja or draw
78%
Racing Rioja or Haro Deportivo
76%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
46%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja wins by 2+
29%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Racing Rioja 1+ goals
82%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
51%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
24%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
63%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
26%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
71%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja attack 1.80 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + Racing Rioja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Racing Rioja scores more
54%
level
24%
Haro Deportivo scores more
22%

Racing Rioja at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Racing Rioja 0–0 Haro Deportivo

Racing Rioja and Haro Deportivo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.