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Racing Rioja II vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Racing Rioja II
Racing Rioja II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
River Ebro
River Ebro
11/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 11Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing Rioja II38%
×Draw24%
River Ebro38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Rioja II
1.52
River Ebro
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 93 away

creates per match

Racing Rioja II
1.13
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Racing Rioja II
1.93
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Racing Rioja II+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja II ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Racing Rioja II or draw
62%
Racing Rioja II or River Ebro
76%
Draw or River Ebro
62%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja II wins by 2+
18%
River Ebro wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Racing Rioja II 1+ goals
78%
Racing Rioja II 2+ goals
45%
Racing Rioja II 3+ goals
20%
River Ebro 1+ goals
78%
River Ebro 2+ goals
44%
River Ebro 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)
50%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja II attack 1.13 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.52

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Racing Rioja II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing Rioja II scores more
38%
level
24%
River Ebro scores more
38%

Racing Rioja II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing Rioja II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Racing Rioja II 3–0 River Ebro

Racing Rioja II beat River Ebro 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.