Racing Rioja II vs Peña Balsamaiso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 22Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba ArtificialMatch Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Racing Rioja II39%
Peña Balsamaiso36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 15 home / 66 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Racing Rioja II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Racing Rioja II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches
Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Racing Rioja II attack 1.13 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52
Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Racing Rioja II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.45
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Racing Rioja II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Racing Rioja II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
UD Logroñés II
Arnedo
Varea
Oyonesa
Calahorra
Anguiano
Haro Deportivo
Agoncillo
Vianés
Yagüe
Berceo
San Marcial
La Calzada
Comillas
Pradejón
Villegas
AutolPeña BalsamaisoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Racing Rioja II host Peña Balsamaiso on Sunday, 26 February 2023 at 11:00. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Racing Rioja II vs Peña Balsamaiso
Racing Rioja II and Peña Balsamaiso drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 26, 2023.
Goals: Santiago Molina (26'), Mohamed Araar (50').
The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.