Racing Rioja II 0–4 Calahorra II: Result & Stats

Racing Rioja II

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Calahorra II

10/2/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing Rioja II26%

×Draw24%

Calahorra II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Rioja IIExpected goals in this matchCalahorra II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.71

Racing Rioja II

1.18

Calahorra II

1.71

Calahorra II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 90 away

1.13

creates per match

1.48

1.93

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Racing Rioja II

1.13

Calahorra II

1.48

allows per match

Racing Rioja II

1.93

Calahorra II

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Rioja II+0.00on par

Calahorra II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja II ↓

Calahorra II →

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Racing Rioja II or draw

50%

Racing Rioja II or Calahorra II

76%

Draw or Calahorra II

74%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja II wins by 2+

11%

Calahorra II wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Racing Rioja II 1+ goals

69%

Racing Rioja II 2+ goals

33%

Racing Rioja II 3+ goals

12%

Calahorra II 1+ goals

82%

Calahorra II 2+ goals

51%

Calahorra II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)

35%

Calahorra II (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Calahorra II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja II attack 1.13 + Calahorra II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Calahorra II attack 1.48 + Racing Rioja II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Racing Rioja II scores more

26%

level

24%

Calahorra II scores more

50%

Calahorra II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff