Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Racing Rioja II vs Berceo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Racing Rioja II
Racing Rioja II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Berceo
Berceo
4/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 27Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing Rioja II33%
×Draw24%
Berceo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Rioja II
1.36
Berceo
1.59

Berceo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Racing Rioja II
1.13
Berceo
1.25

allows per match

Racing Rioja II
1.93
Berceo
1.59

finishing

Racing Rioja II+0.00on par
Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja II ↓

Berceo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Racing Rioja II or draw
57%
Racing Rioja II or Berceo
76%
Draw or Berceo
67%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja II wins by 2+
15%
Berceo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Racing Rioja II 1+ goals
74%
Racing Rioja II 2+ goals
39%
Racing Rioja II 3+ goals
16%
Berceo 1+ goals
80%
Berceo 2+ goals
47%
Berceo 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)
43%
Berceo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja II attack 1.13 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Berceo attack 1.25 + Racing Rioja II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing Rioja II scores more
33%
level
24%
Berceo scores more
43%

Berceo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Racing Rioja II 1–2 Berceo

Berceo beat Racing Rioja II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Mundial 82 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.