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Racing Power W vs Rio Ave W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Racing Power W
Racing Power W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rio Ave W
Rio Ave W
9/21/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Racing Power W31%
×Draw29%
Rio Ave W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Power W
1.01
Rio Ave W
1.19

Rio Ave W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Racing Power W
1.11
Rio Ave W
0.60

allows per match

Racing Power W
1.78
Rio Ave W
0.90

finishing

Racing Power W+0.00on par
Rio Ave W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Power W ↓

Rio Ave W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Racing Power W or draw
60%
Racing Power W or Rio Ave W
71%
Draw or Rio Ave W
69%

Winning margin

Racing Power W wins by 2+
12%
Rio Ave W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Racing Power W 1+ goals
64%
Racing Power W 2+ goals
27%
Racing Power W 3+ goals
8%
Rio Ave W 1+ goals
70%
Rio Ave W 2+ goals
33%
Rio Ave W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Racing Power W (draw refunded)
44%
Rio Ave W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Power W at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Rio Ave W away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Power W attack 1.11 + Rio Ave W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Rio Ave W attack 0.60 + Racing Power W defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Racing Power W scores more
31%
level
29%
Rio Ave W scores more
40%

Rio Ave W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rio Ave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Racing Power W 1–0 Rio Ave W

Racing Power W beat Rio Ave W 1-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on September 21, 2025.