Racing Murcia 1–4 Yeclano: Result & Stats

Racing Murcia

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Yeclano

9/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Racing Murcia26%

×Draw26%

Yeclano47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing MurciaExpected goals in this matchYeclano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.47

Racing Murcia

1.02

Yeclano

1.47

Yeclano creates 44% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

1.39

creates per match

2.06

0.87

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Racing Murcia

1.39

Yeclano

2.06

allows per match

Racing Murcia

0.87

Yeclano

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Yeclano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Murcia ↓

Yeclano →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Racing Murcia or draw

53%

Racing Murcia or Yeclano

74%

Draw or Yeclano

74%

Winning margin

Racing Murcia wins by 2+

10%

Yeclano wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Racing Murcia 1+ goals

64%

Racing Murcia 2+ goals

27%

Racing Murcia 3+ goals

Yeclano 1+ goals

77%

Yeclano 2+ goals

43%

Yeclano 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)

36%

Yeclano (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Murcia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 62 matches

Yeclano away — creates 2.06, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Murcia attack 1.39 + Yeclano defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.02

Yeclano attack 2.06 + Racing Murcia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Racing Murcia scores more

26%

level

26%

Yeclano scores more

47%

Yeclano at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff