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Racing Murcia vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Racing Murcia41%
×Draw28%
Real Murcia II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Murcia
1.27
Real Murcia II
1.05

Racing Murcia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 111 away

creates per match

Racing Murcia
1.39
Real Murcia II
1.24

allows per match

Racing Murcia
0.87
Real Murcia II
1.15

finishing

Racing Murcia+0.00on par
Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Murcia ↓

Real Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Racing Murcia or draw
69%
Racing Murcia or Real Murcia II
72%
Draw or Real Murcia II
59%

Winning margin

Racing Murcia wins by 2+
19%
Real Murcia II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Racing Murcia 1+ goals
72%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
36%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
14%
Real Murcia II 1+ goals
65%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
28%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
57%
Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Murcia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 62 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Murcia attack 1.39 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Racing Murcia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Racing Murcia scores more
41%
level
28%
Real Murcia II scores more
31%

Racing Murcia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Murcia 1 – 2 Real Murcia II

Real Murcia II beat Racing Murcia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú in Las Torres de Cotillas.