Racing Murcia 2–2 Lorca Deportiva: Result & Stats

Racing Murcia

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Lorca Deportiva

12/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 16Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Racing Murcia37%

×Draw27%

Lorca Deportiva36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing MurciaExpected goals in this matchLorca Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.22

Racing Murcia

1.23

Lorca Deportiva

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 80 away

1.39

creates per match

1.57

0.87

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Racing Murcia

1.39

Lorca Deportiva

1.57

allows per match

Racing Murcia

0.87

Lorca Deportiva

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Murcia ↓

Lorca Deportiva →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Racing Murcia or draw

64%

Racing Murcia or Lorca Deportiva

73%

Draw or Lorca Deportiva

63%

Winning margin

Racing Murcia wins by 2+

16%

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Racing Murcia 1+ goals

71%

Racing Murcia 2+ goals

35%

Racing Murcia 3+ goals

13%

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals

70%

Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals

34%

Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)

50%

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Murcia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 62 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Murcia attack 1.39 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Racing Murcia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Racing Murcia scores more

37%

level

27%

Lorca Deportiva scores more

36%

Racing Murcia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Racing Murcia 2–2 Lorca Deportiva

Racing Murcia and Lorca Deportiva drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Campus Universitario in Murcia.

Racing Murcia vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Racing Murcia 2–2 Lorca Deportiva