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Lorca Deportiva vs Racing Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
4/24/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Lorca Deportiva52%
×Draw25%
Racing Murcia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca Deportiva
1.58
Racing Murcia
0.94

Lorca Deportiva creates 68% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 62 away

creates per match

Lorca Deportiva
2.11
Racing Murcia
1.13

allows per match

Lorca Deportiva
0.75
Racing Murcia
1.06

finishing

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par
Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca Deportiva ↓

Racing Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lorca Deportiva or draw
78%
Lorca Deportiva or Racing Murcia
75%
Draw or Racing Murcia
48%

Winning margin

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
27%
Racing Murcia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
79%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
47%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
21%
Racing Murcia 1+ goals
61%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
24%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
70%
Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca Deportiva at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.75 · 80 matches

Racing Murcia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca Deportiva attack 2.11 + Racing Murcia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.58

Racing Murcia attack 1.13 + Lorca Deportiva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lorca Deportiva scores more
52%
level
25%
Racing Murcia scores more
22%

Lorca Deportiva at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorca Deportiva vs Racing Murcia

Lorca Deportiva and Racing Murcia drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.