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Racing Murcia vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Gonzalo Páez 89'
Andrés Rodríguez 79'
12/18/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Racing Murcia42%
×Draw29%
La Unión Atlético29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Murcia
1.25
La Unión Atlético
0.99

Racing Murcia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 45 away

creates per match

Racing Murcia
1.39
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Racing Murcia
0.87
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Racing Murcia+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Murcia ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Racing Murcia or draw
71%
Racing Murcia or La Unión Atlético
71%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
58%

Winning margin

Racing Murcia wins by 2+
19%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Racing Murcia 1+ goals
71%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
36%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
13%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
63%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
26%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
59%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Murcia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 62 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Murcia attack 1.39 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Racing Murcia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Racing Murcia scores more
42%
level
29%
La Unión Atlético scores more
29%

Racing Murcia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
Carlos Palazón← Kilian Morante
66'
Higón← Diego Gámiz
75'
Dani Díez← Vitolo
78'
Ángel Écija← Víctor
78'
Gonzalo Páez← Sergio Cases
79'
Andrés Rodríguez
81'
Fran Cortés← Javi Rosa
89'
Francisco Martínez← Alejo Nahuel
89'
Hugo Pinto← Hamza El Harchi
89'
Gonzalo Páez
Racing
La
Xabi Irureta
Irureta
Javi Rosa
▼
Rosa
Mario Hernández
Hernández
Walter Navarro
Navarro
David Valdeolivas
Valdeoliv
Diego Gámiz
▼
Gámiz
Monty
Monty
Javi Grillo
Grillo
Vitolo
▼
Vitolo
Tato
Tato
Belencoso
Belencoso
Emilio Romero
Romero
Julio Algar
Algar
Fran Navarro
Navarro
Víctor
▼
Víctor
Andrés Rodríguez
⚽
Rodríguez
Kilian Morante
▼
Morante
David Freire
Freire
Hamza El Harchi
▼
Harchi
Sergio Cases
▼
Cases
Alejo Nahuel
▼
Nahuel
Lorenzo Bianco
Bianco
Jorge Perona
Manager: Jorge Perona
55'▲Carlos Palazón←▼Kilian Morante
78'▲Ángel Écija←▼Víctor
78'▲Gonzalo Páez←▼Sergio Cases
89'▲Francisco Martínez←▼Alejo Nahuel
89'▲Hugo Pinto←▼Hamza El Harchi

Racing Murcia substitutes

PalazónÉcijaPáezMartínezPinto
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
66'▲Higón←▼Diego Gámiz
75'▲Dani Díez←▼Vitolo
81'▲Fran Cortés←▼Javi Rosa

La Unión Atlético substitutes

HigónDíezCortés

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Racing Murcia 2–0 La Unión Atlético

Racing Murcia beat La Unión Atlético 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 18, 2022.

Goals: Andrés Rodríguez (79'), Gonzalo Páez (89').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú in Las Torres de Cotillas.