Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Racing Murcia vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
3/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 21Polideportivo Municipal Virgen del Pasico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Racing Murcia54%
×Draw26%
Huércal Overa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Murcia
1.53
Huércal Overa
0.83

Racing Murcia creates 84% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 47 away

creates per match

Racing Murcia
1.39
Huércal Overa
0.79

allows per match

Racing Murcia
0.87
Huércal Overa
1.68

finishing

Racing Murcia+0.00on par
Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Murcia ↓

Huércal Overa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Racing Murcia or draw
80%
Racing Murcia or Huércal Overa
74%
Draw or Huércal Overa
46%

Winning margin

Racing Murcia wins by 2+
28%
Huércal Overa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Racing Murcia 1+ goals
78%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
45%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
20%
Huércal Overa 1+ goals
56%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
20%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
73%
Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Murcia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 62 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Murcia attack 1.39 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Racing Murcia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Racing Murcia scores more
54%
level
26%
Huércal Overa scores more
20%

Racing Murcia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Murcia 2 – 0 Huércal Overa

Racing Murcia beat Huércal Overa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Virgen del Pasico in Murcia.