Racing Murcia 0–1 Deportiva Minera: Result & Stats

Racing Murcia

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportiva Minera

1/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 18Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Racing Murcia49%

×Draw26%

Deportiva Minera25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing MurciaExpected goals in this matchDeportiva Minera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.98

Racing Murcia

1.48

Deportiva Minera

0.98

Racing Murcia creates 51% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 78 away

1.39

creates per match

1.08

0.87

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Racing Murcia

1.39

Deportiva Minera

1.08

allows per match

Racing Murcia

0.87

Deportiva Minera

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Murcia ↓

Deportiva Minera →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Racing Murcia or draw

75%

Racing Murcia or Deportiva Minera

74%

Draw or Deportiva Minera

51%

Winning margin

Racing Murcia wins by 2+

24%

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+

Team goals

Racing Murcia 1+ goals

77%

Racing Murcia 2+ goals

43%

Racing Murcia 3+ goals

19%

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals

62%

Deportiva Minera 2+ goals

26%

Deportiva Minera 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)

66%

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Murcia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 62 matches

Deportiva Minera away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Murcia attack 1.39 + Deportiva Minera defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Deportiva Minera attack 1.08 + Racing Murcia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Racing Murcia scores more

49%

level

26%

Deportiva Minera scores more

25%

Racing Murcia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Murcia vs Deportiva Minera

Deportiva Minera beat Racing Murcia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú in Las Torres de Cotillas.

Racing Murcia vs Deportiva Minera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Racing Murcia vs Deportiva Minera