Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Racing Murcia vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
11/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Racing Murcia38%
×Draw30%
Atlético Pulpileño32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Murcia
1.12
Atlético Pulpileño
1.01

Racing Murcia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 93 away

creates per match

Racing Murcia
1.39
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Racing Murcia
0.87
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Racing Murcia+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Murcia ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Racing Murcia or draw
68%
Racing Murcia or Atlético Pulpileño
70%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
62%

Winning margin

Racing Murcia wins by 2+
16%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Racing Murcia 1+ goals
67%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
31%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
54%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Murcia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 62 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Murcia attack 1.39 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.12

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Racing Murcia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing Murcia scores more
38%
level
30%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
32%

Racing Murcia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Murcia vs Atlético Pulpileño

Racing Murcia beat Atlético Pulpileño 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú in Las Torres de Cotillas.