Racing Murcia 3–0 Archena Sport: Result & Stats

Racing Murcia

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Archena Sport

3/13/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 27Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Racing Murcia45%

×Draw28%

Archena Sport27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing MurciaExpected goals in this matchArchena Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.97

Racing Murcia

1.34

Archena Sport

0.97

Racing Murcia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

1.39

creates per match

1.06

0.87

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Racing Murcia

1.39

Archena Sport

1.06

allows per match

Racing Murcia

0.87

Archena Sport

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Archena Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Murcia ↓

Archena Sport →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Racing Murcia or draw

73%

Racing Murcia or Archena Sport

72%

Draw or Archena Sport

55%

Winning margin

Racing Murcia wins by 2+

21%

Archena Sport wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Racing Murcia 1+ goals

74%

Racing Murcia 2+ goals

39%

Racing Murcia 3+ goals

15%

Archena Sport 1+ goals

62%

Archena Sport 2+ goals

25%

Archena Sport 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)

63%

Archena Sport (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Murcia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 62 matches

Archena Sport away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Murcia attack 1.39 + Archena Sport defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Archena Sport attack 1.06 + Racing Murcia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Racing Murcia scores more

45%

level

28%

Archena Sport scores more

27%

Racing Murcia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Racing Murcia 3–0 Archena Sport

Racing Murcia beat Archena Sport 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Campus Universitario in Murcia.

Racing Murcia vs Archena Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Racing Murcia 3–0 Archena Sport