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Racing Murcia vs Águilas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Águilas
Águilas
4/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Racing Murcia36%
×Draw31%
Águilas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Murcia
1.04
Águilas
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 42 away

creates per match

Racing Murcia
1.39
Águilas
1.10

allows per match

Racing Murcia
0.87
Águilas
0.69

finishing

Racing Murcia+0.00on par
Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Murcia ↓

Águilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Racing Murcia or draw
67%
Racing Murcia or Águilas
69%
Draw or Águilas
64%

Winning margin

Racing Murcia wins by 2+
14%
Águilas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Racing Murcia 1+ goals
65%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
28%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
9%
Águilas 1+ goals
63%
Águilas 2+ goals
26%
Águilas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
52%
Águilas (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Murcia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 62 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Murcia attack 1.39 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.04

Águilas attack 1.10 + Racing Murcia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Racing Murcia scores more
36%
level
31%
Águilas scores more
33%

Racing Murcia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Murcia 1 – 0 Águilas

Racing Murcia beat Águilas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú in Las Torres de Cotillas.