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Racing Montevideo vs America de Cali — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Racing Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
America de Cali
America de Cali
4/3/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Racing Montevideo40%
×Draw27%
America de Cali33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Montevideo
1.33
America de Cali
1.17

Racing Montevideo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Racing Montevideo
1.29
America de Cali
0.91

allows per match

Racing Montevideo
1.43
America de Cali
1.36

finishing

Racing Montevideo+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Montevideo ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Racing Montevideo or draw
67%
Racing Montevideo or America de Cali
73%
Draw or America de Cali
60%

Winning margin

Racing Montevideo wins by 2+
18%
America de Cali wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Racing Montevideo 1+ goals
74%
Racing Montevideo 2+ goals
38%
Racing Montevideo 3+ goals
15%
America de Cali 1+ goals
69%
America de Cali 2+ goals
33%
America de Cali 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)
55%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Montevideo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Montevideo attack 1.29 + America de Cali defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

America de Cali attack 0.91 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Racing Montevideo scores more
40%
level
27%
America de Cali scores more
33%

Racing Montevideo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Racing Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Montevideo vs America de Cali

America de Cali beat Racing Montevideo 3-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.