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Racing Madrid vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Racing Madrid
Racing Madrid
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Leganés II
Leganés II
4/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Racing Madrid20%
×Draw21%
Leganés II59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Madrid
1.13
Leganés II
2.09

Leganés II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

creates per match

Racing Madrid
0.94
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

Racing Madrid
2.29
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

Racing Madrid+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Madrid ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Racing Madrid or draw
41%
Racing Madrid or Leganés II
79%
Draw or Leganés II
80%

Winning margin

Racing Madrid wins by 2+
8%
Leganés II wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Racing Madrid 1+ goals
68%
Racing Madrid 2+ goals
31%
Racing Madrid 3+ goals
11%
Leganés II 1+ goals
88%
Leganés II 2+ goals
62%
Leganés II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Racing Madrid (draw refunded)
25%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Madrid at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Madrid attack 0.94 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Racing Madrid defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Racing Madrid scores more
20%
level
21%
Leganés II scores more
59%

Leganés II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Madrid vs Leganés II

Leganés II beat Racing Madrid 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 3, 2026.