Racing Louisville W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Racing Louisville W

Preview

22:30

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

9/11/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageLynn Family Stadium

Big match

38%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

model favours

35%27%38%

Racing Louisville W score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Racing Louisville W35%

×Draw27%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchNJ/NY Gotham FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.29

Racing Louisville W

1.22

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 86 away

1.25

creates per match

1.27

1.30

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.25

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.27

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.30

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

NJ/NY Gotham FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

62%

Racing Louisville W or NJ/NY Gotham FC W

73%

Draw or NJ/NY Gotham FC W

65%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

15%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

70%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

34%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

12%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals

72%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals

37%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

48%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.25 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.22

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.27 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

35%

level

27%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more

38%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

NJ/NY Gotham FC W score first in only 23% of matches
NJ/NY Gotham FC W have won 3 in a row
69% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Style contrast — Racing Louisville W play Direct / counter-attacking, NJ/NY Gotham FC W Defensively solid
Racing Louisville W sit 16, NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2 in the table
Racing Louisville W fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Racing Louisville W

Direct / counter-attacking

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Defensively solid

44%Possession52%

74%Pass accuracy77%

13.0Shots11.5

1.80xGBiggest gap2.64

Racing Louisville WNJ/NY Gotham FC W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3

Racing Louisville W

4

Draws

3

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 40%

0–12–21–00–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

DLLWW

W

WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff