Racing Louisville W 1–0 NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Racing Louisville W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

5/10/2025

NWSL Women · Round 8Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Racing Louisville W35%

×Draw27%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchNJ/NY Gotham FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.29

Racing Louisville W

1.22

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 86 away

1.25

creates per match

1.27

1.30

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.25

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.27

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.30

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

NJ/NY Gotham FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

62%

Racing Louisville W or NJ/NY Gotham FC W

73%

Draw or NJ/NY Gotham FC W

65%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

15%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

70%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

34%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

12%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals

72%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals

37%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

48%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.25 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.22

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.27 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

35%

level

27%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more

38%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff