Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Racing Louisville W vs Kansas City W — NWSL Women 2026

Racing Louisville W
Racing Louisville W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kansas City W
Kansas City W
7/8/2023NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 10Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Racing Louisville W38%
×Draw27%
Kansas City W35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Louisville W
1.32
Kansas City W
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 72 away

creates per match

Racing Louisville W
1.25
Kansas City W
1.19

allows per match

Racing Louisville W
1.30
Kansas City W
1.40

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par
Kansas City W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Kansas City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw
65%
Racing Louisville W or Kansas City W
73%
Draw or Kansas City W
62%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+
17%
Kansas City W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals
73%
Racing Louisville W 2+ goals
38%
Racing Louisville W 3+ goals
15%
Kansas City W 1+ goals
71%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
36%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)
52%
Kansas City W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Kansas City W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.25 + Kansas City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kansas City W attack 1.19 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more
38%
level
27%
Kansas City W scores more
35%

Racing Louisville W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Louisville W vs Kansas City W

Racing Louisville W beat Kansas City W 2-1 in NWSL Women on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky.