Kansas City W 3–3 Racing Louisville W

Kansas City W

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Racing Louisville W

5/19/2024

NWSL Women · Round 8CPKC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Kansas City W54%

×Draw23%

Racing Louisville W22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kansas City WExpected goals in this matchRacing Louisville W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.04

Kansas City W

1.77

Racing Louisville W

1.04

Kansas City W creates 70% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

1.82

creates per match

1.03

1.06

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Kansas City W

1.82

Racing Louisville W

1.03

allows per match

Kansas City W

1.06

Racing Louisville W

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

Racing Louisville W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw

78%

Kansas City W or Racing Louisville W

77%

Draw or Racing Louisville W

46%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+

30%

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals

83%

Kansas City W 2+ goals

53%

Kansas City W 3+ goals

26%

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

65%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

28%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)

71%

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

Racing Louisville W away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.73 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 1.82 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Racing Louisville W attack 1.03 + Kansas City W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kansas City W scores more

54%

level

23%

Racing Louisville W scores more

22%

Kansas City W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff