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Racing Louisville W vs Kansas City W — NWSL Women - Challenge Cup 2020

Racing Louisville W
Racing Louisville W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Kansas City W
Kansas City W
5/17/2023NWSL Women - Challenge CupNWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 2Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Racing Louisville W41%
×Draw24%
Kansas City W35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Louisville W
1.56
Kansas City W
1.42

Racing Louisville W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Racing Louisville W
2.00
Kansas City W
1.33

allows per match

Racing Louisville W
1.50
Kansas City W
1.11

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par
Kansas City W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Kansas City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw
65%
Racing Louisville W or Kansas City W
76%
Draw or Kansas City W
59%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+
20%
Kansas City W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals
79%
Racing Louisville W 2+ goals
46%
Racing Louisville W 3+ goals
21%
Kansas City W 1+ goals
76%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
41%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)
54%
Kansas City W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Kansas City W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 2.00 + Kansas City W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kansas City W attack 1.33 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more
41%
level
24%
Kansas City W scores more
35%

Racing Louisville W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Louisville W vs Kansas City W

Racing Louisville W beat Kansas City W 3-2 in NWSL Women - Challenge Cup on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky.