Racing Ferrol 1–1 Tenerife: Result & Stats

Racing Ferrol

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tenerife

Eneko Jauregi 15'

Enric Gallego 13'

10/28/2024

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Racing Ferrol38%

×Draw29%

Tenerife33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FerrolExpected goals in this matchTenerife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.03

Racing Ferrol

1.14

Tenerife

1.03

Racing Ferrol creates 11% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 149 away

1.02

creates per match

0.85

1.21

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Racing Ferrol

1.02

Tenerife

0.85

allows per match

Racing Ferrol

1.21

Tenerife

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Tenerife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw

67%

Racing Ferrol or Tenerife

71%

Draw or Tenerife

62%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

16%

Tenerife wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

68%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

32%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

11%

Tenerife 1+ goals

64%

Tenerife 2+ goals

28%

Tenerife 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

54%

Tenerife (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Tenerife away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.02 + Tenerife defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Tenerife attack 0.85 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more

38%

level

29%

Tenerife scores more

33%

Racing Ferrol at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Álvaro Sanz

Racing Ferrol · M

7.6

Match Events

8'

Fernando Medrano

13'

Enric Gallego↳ Aarón

15'

Eneko Jauregi↳ Josué Dorrio

46'

Nacho Sánchez← Josué Dorrio

46'

David Rodríguez← Fernando Medrano

58'

Aleksa Puric

64'

Chiki← Álvaro Giménez

69'

Álex López← Bebé

72'

Julián Delmás← Rober Correa

75'

Moises Delgado

81'

David Rodríguez Ramos

85'

Aleksa Puric

85'

Aleksa Puric

89'

M. Moreno← Y. Diarra

89'

Ángel Rodríguez← Enric Gallego

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingTenerife

Overview

62%Possession38%

8Total Shots10

9Corners2

7Fouls21

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target5

2Off Target3

2Blocked2

8Inside Box5

0Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

401Total Passes247

327Accurate Passes176

82%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls21

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

5Offsides0

Segunda División: Racing Ferrol 1–1 Tenerife

Racing Ferrol and Tenerife drew 1-1 in Segunda División on October 28, 2024.

Goals: Enric Gallego (13'), Eneko Jauregi (15').

Racing Ferrol controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.

Racing Ferrol vs Tenerife — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Racing Ferrol 1–1 Tenerife