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Racing Ferrol vs Real Avilés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
Preview
16:00
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
1/10/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Estadio Municipal da Malata
45%
Racing Ferrol
model favours
45%24%31%
1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Racing Ferrol45%
×Draw24%
Real Avilés31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.71
Real Avilés
1.39

Racing Ferrol creates 23% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 19 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Real Avilés
1.84

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Real Avilés
2.00

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
69%
Racing Ferrol or Real Avilés
76%
Draw or Real Avilés
55%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
24%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
82%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
51%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
24%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
75%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
40%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
59%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Real Avilés defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Real Avilés attack 1.84 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
45%
level
24%
Real Avilés scores more
31%

Racing Ferrol at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ferrol
LDDDD
Avilés
DLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Ferrol vs Real Avilés — Match Preview

Racing Ferrol face Real Avilés on January 10, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Racing Ferrol host Real Avilés at Estadio Municipal da Malata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.