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Racing Ferrol vs Racing Santander — Segunda División 2018

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
3/2/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 29Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Racing Ferrol37%
×Draw28%
Racing Santander35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.23
Racing Santander
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 106 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.02
Racing Santander
1.16

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
1.21
Racing Santander
1.43

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
65%
Racing Ferrol or Racing Santander
72%
Draw or Racing Santander
63%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
16%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
71%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
35%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
13%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
70%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
33%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
51%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.02 + Racing Santander defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Racing Santander attack 1.16 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
37%
level
28%
Racing Santander scores more
35%

Racing Ferrol at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Racing Ferrol 2–2 Racing Santander

Racing Ferrol and Racing Santander drew 2-2 in Segunda División on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.