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Racing Ferrol vs Las Palmas II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
CANC
22:00
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
5/9/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing Ferrol60%
×Draw25%
Las Palmas II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.60
Las Palmas II
0.67

Racing Ferrol creates 139% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 15 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Las Palmas II
0.40

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Las Palmas II
1.80

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
85%
Racing Ferrol or Las Palmas II
75%
Draw or Las Palmas II
40%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
33%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
80%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
47%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
22%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
49%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
15%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
79%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Las Palmas II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Las Palmas II attack 0.40 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
60%
level
25%
Las Palmas II scores more
15%

Racing Ferrol at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Racing Ferrol host Las Palmas II

May 9, 2020: Racing Ferrol take on Las Palmas II in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Racing Ferrol host Las Palmas II at Estadio Municipal de A Malata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.