Racing Ferrol 3–0 Fuenlabrada: Result & Stats

Racing Ferrol

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fuenlabrada

2/12/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Racing Ferrol54%

×Draw27%

Fuenlabrada20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FerrolExpected goals in this matchFuenlabrada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.76

Racing Ferrol

1.46

Fuenlabrada

0.76

Racing Ferrol creates 92% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 38 away

1.41

creates per match

0.58

0.94

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Racing Ferrol

1.41

Fuenlabrada

0.58

allows per match

Racing Ferrol

0.94

Fuenlabrada

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Fuenlabrada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw

80%

Racing Ferrol or Fuenlabrada

73%

Draw or Fuenlabrada

46%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

27%

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

77%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

43%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

18%

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

53%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

18%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

73%

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Fuenlabrada attack 0.58 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more

54%

level

27%

Fuenlabrada scores more

20%

Racing Ferrol at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff