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Racing Ferrol vs Extremadura — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
CANC
16:00
Extremadura
Extremadura
2/26/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Racing Ferrol59%
×Draw23%
Extremadura18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.83
Extremadura
0.89

Racing Ferrol creates 106% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 12 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Extremadura
0.83

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Extremadura
2.25

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
82%
Racing Ferrol or Extremadura
77%
Draw or Extremadura
41%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
34%
Extremadura wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
84%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
54%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
28%
Extremadura 1+ goals
59%
Extremadura 2+ goals
22%
Extremadura 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
77%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Extremadura away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Extremadura defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.83

Extremadura attack 0.83 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
59%
level
23%
Extremadura scores more
18%

Racing Ferrol at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Ferrol face Extremadura (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Racing Ferrol hosting Extremadura. Match starts February 26, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Racing Ferrol host Extremadura at Estadio Municipal de A Malata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.