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Racing Ferrol vs Eldense — Segunda División 2018

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eldense
Eldense
4/19/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 36Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Racing Ferrol40%
×Draw28%
Eldense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.26
Eldense
1.08

Racing Ferrol creates 17% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.02
Eldense
0.95

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
1.21
Eldense
1.50

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Eldense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
68%
Racing Ferrol or Eldense
72%
Draw or Eldense
60%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
18%
Eldense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
72%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
36%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
13%
Eldense 1+ goals
66%
Eldense 2+ goals
29%
Eldense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
56%
Eldense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Eldense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.02 + Eldense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.26

Eldense attack 0.95 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
40%
level
28%
Eldense scores more
32%

Racing Ferrol at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Ferrol vs Eldense

Racing Ferrol beat Eldense 1-0 in Segunda División on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.