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Racing Ferrol vs Compostela — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Compostela
Compostela
11/21/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Racing Ferrol43%
×Draw30%
Compostela26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.17
Compostela
0.84

Racing Ferrol creates 39% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 12 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Compostela
0.75

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Compostela
0.92

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Compostela+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Compostela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
74%
Racing Ferrol or Compostela
70%
Draw or Compostela
57%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
19%
Compostela wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
69%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
33%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
11%
Compostela 1+ goals
57%
Compostela 2+ goals
21%
Compostela 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
62%
Compostela (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Compostela away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Compostela defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.17

Compostela attack 0.75 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
43%
level
30%
Compostela scores more
26%

Racing Ferrol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Ferrol vs Compostela

Racing Ferrol and Compostela drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.