Racing Ferrol 1–2 Celta de Vigo II: Result & Stats

Racing Ferrol

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Celta de Vigo II

2/20/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Municipal da Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Racing Ferrol42%

×Draw27%

Celta de Vigo II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FerrolExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.14

Racing Ferrol

1.35

Celta de Vigo II

1.14

Racing Ferrol creates 18% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 120 away

1.41

creates per match

1.33

0.94

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Racing Ferrol

1.41

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Racing Ferrol

0.94

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw

68%

Racing Ferrol or Celta de Vigo II

73%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

58%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

19%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

74%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

39%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

15%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

68%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

32%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

57%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more

42%

level

27%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

32%

Racing Ferrol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff