Racing Ferrol 1–0 Cadiz: Result & Stats

Racing Ferrol

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cadiz

Chiki 82' (pen)

5/18/2025

Segunda División · Round 40Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Racing Ferrol35%

×Draw29%

Cadiz36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FerrolExpected goals in this matchCadiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.15

Racing Ferrol

1.13

Cadiz

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 84 away

1.02

creates per match

1.08

1.21

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Racing Ferrol

1.02

Cadiz

1.08

allows per match

Racing Ferrol

1.21

Cadiz

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Cadiz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Cadiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw

64%

Racing Ferrol or Cadiz

71%

Draw or Cadiz

65%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

14%

Cadiz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

68%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

31%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

11%

Cadiz 1+ goals

68%

Cadiz 2+ goals

32%

Cadiz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

49%

Cadiz (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Cadiz away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.02 + Cadiz defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cadiz attack 1.08 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more

35%

level

29%

Cadiz scores more

36%

Cadiz at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

Mario Climent

Cadiz · D

7.3

Match Events

45+1'

Rubén Alcaraz

46'

Óscar Melendo← José de la Rosa

65'

Naim García← Héber Pena

65'

Chiki← Álvaro Sanz

75'

Josué Dorrio← Brais Martínez

75'

Aitor Gelardo← Nacho Sánchez

75'

E. Insúa← Rober Correa

75'

Carlos Fernández← Rubén Sobrino

75'

M. Diakité← Rubén Alcaraz

82'

ChikiPenalty

83'

José Matos← B. Ocampo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingCadiz

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots9

4Corners6

14Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots9

3On Target1

4Off Target7

4Blocked1

5Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

348Total Passes442

272Accurate Passes365

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3